Social Inventory of Tin Ingots by Region as of July 11, 2025 [SMM Data]

SHFE tin price trend: After fluctuating at highs, it came under pressure and pulled back. Rebound at the beginning of the week: On July 10, the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 266,740 yuan/mt, up 1.46% on the day, mainly driven by expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the sentiment boosting PV demand from China's "anti-rat race" policy. Decline at the end of the week: On July 11, influenced by supply-side bearish factors (ongoing production resumptions in Myanmar) and weak demand, the whole week showed a pattern of "jump initially and then pull back". Fluctuation range: This week, the most-traded contract mainly operated within the range of 258,000–267,000 yuan/mt, failing to effectively break through the resistance level of 270,000 yuan. Spot market transactions: Dominated by price-sensitive restocking, overall transactions were sluggish. Loosening of premium structure: The premium for Yunnan Tin brand fell from 1,200 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 800–1,200 yuan/mt, reflecting smelters' inability to refuse to budge on prices. Concentrated restocking behavior: When prices fell, downstream enterprises restocked at low prices, with daily shipments from traders generally ranging from 10–30 mt; after prices rose, downstream enterprises returned to a wait-and-see attitude, and transactions quickly turned sluggish. Trader feedback: High prices suppressed actual transactions, with daily trade volumes in the spot market generally only 10–20 mt, far below the peak season level.
Despite weak end-use demand, domestic social inventory of tin ingots still declined slightly this week, mainly because although downstream procurement was weak, smelters were forced to cut production due to raw material shortages, leading to a reduction in spot circulation. The extent of supply contraction exceeded the decline in demand, coupled with downstream enterprises restocking at low prices this week, resulting in a slight destocking of social inventory of tin ingots this week.